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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 14 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 11 games
45%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
13%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 172 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 469 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 523 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 348 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
244 picks · 417 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 328 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
236 picks · 298 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 28%
Hero pool strength61% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total75% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Execration 64%Army Geniuses 36%
The model gave 64% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTino-
41% · 37 games61% · 48 games
Tidehunterdb-
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyBob
45% · 77 gameslittle data
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
Lich
LichRR
29% · 3 games67% · 25 games
BeastmasterwoMy
Beastmaster
41% · 44 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 75%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1