OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
Tusksignature
Hyde · 9 games
Iosignature
Dreamocel · 8 games
Miranasignature
Hyde · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Hyde · 8 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 523 bans
Luna
252 picks · 348 bans
Mars
244 picks · 417 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
BOOM Esports 76%Lilgun 24%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1