OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 469 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 523 bans
Luna
252 picks · 348 bans
Mars
244 picks · 416 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
235 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 56%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total85% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 85%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect