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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Bane
Bane
cml · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
cml · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
cml · 1 game
100%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
100%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 14 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 10 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 8 games
13%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 457 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 520 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
243 picks · 411 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
Polaris Esports 55%Army Geniuses 45%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
55% · 89 games45% · 85 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerMac
46% · 80 games47% · 132 games
Juggernautdb-
Juggernaut
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
60% · 110 games41% · 115 games
Sand KingwoMy
Sand King
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoomy
58% · 79 games52% · 184 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Lion
Lioncml
51% · 158 games
Game 2prediction missed46:36
Polaris Esports 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNatsumi
58% · 23 games57% · 3 games
DawnbreakerMamangDaya
Dawnbreaker
Silencer
SilencerMac
40% · 10 games53% · 97 games
Gyrocopterdb-
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
53% · 37 games46% · 64 games
Legion CommanderwoMy
Legion Commander
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
43% · 32 games45% · 17 games
Skywrath MageLym-
Skywrath Mage
Lion
Lioncml
53% · 79 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2