OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
Lina
265 picks · 455 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 519 bans
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
Mars
240 picks · 411 bans
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 81%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed