?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
45%

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Dendi · 11 games
64%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
368 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
347 picks · 123 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
266 picks · 454 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 522 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
249 picks · 347 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
240 picks · 411 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
237 picks · 244 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:28
Spider Pigzs 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlil pleb
58% · 41 game48% · 81 game
LunaWatson
Luna
Puck
PuckNo!ob
50% · 117 games49% · 72 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFunn1k
59% · 18 games43% · 90 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdnz
58% · 94 games46% · 56 games
Dark Willow[T]SA
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
42% · 29 games
Game 2prediction missed35:37
Spider Pigzs 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
52% · 107 games64% · 10 games
Naga SirenWatson
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlil pleb
52% · 72 games44% · 61 game
BrewmasterLimitless
Brewmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFunn1k
54% · 15 games47% · 228 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdnz
46% · 89 games53% · 68 games
Dark Willow[T]SA
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLeBronDota
55% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 55%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2