Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
368 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 123 bans
Lina
266 picks · 451 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 522 bans
Luna
249 picks · 345 bans
Mars
238 picks · 410 bans
Winter Wyvern
237 picks · 244 bans
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:16
PuckChamp 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 23:56.
Game 2prediction correct10:22
PuckChamp 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 26:08.
Game 3prediction correct17:32
PuckChamp 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 45:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 53%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3