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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 31 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 30 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 27 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 18 games
22%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 15 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 944 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 633 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 659 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
390 picks · 243 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
1w Team 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
51% · 322 games48% · 260 games
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
49% · 267 games43% · 66 games
AlchemistSumaiL
Alchemist
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
54% · 147 games59% · 50 games
LargoNo!ob
Largo
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
50% · 172 games46% · 401 game
WarlockGH
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
52% · 130 games50% · 261 game
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct5:35
1w Team 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerssnovv1
45% · 35 games53% · 61 game
Razorrincyq
Razor
Puck
PuckSquad1x
49% · 415 games50% · 340 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Brewmaster
Brewmasterмистер мораль
42% · 68 games61% · 260 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
43% · 172 games59% · 229 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroRein
46% · 380 games51% · 180 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2