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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 173 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 123 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 447 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
248 picks · 343 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
240 picks · 246 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
237 picks · 331 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
235 picks · 409 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:15
Spider Pigzs 43%HellRaisers 57%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 28:46.
Game 2prediction correct24:38
Spider Pigzs 43%HellRaisers 57%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 41:30.
Game 3prediction correct27:36
Spider Pigzs 43%HellRaisers 57%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 57%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3