BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Bane
cml · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Mac · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Natsumi · 1 game
Earthshaker
Boomy · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Natsumi · 1 game
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 444 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
247 picks · 345 bans
Winter Wyvern
243 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
240 picks · 332 bans
Terrorblade
235 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:8
Polaris Esports 49%Yangon Galacticos 51%
The model gave 51% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNatsumi
TerrorbladeKsh
DoomForce
InvokerYoung PH
PangolierMac
Chencml
LionBoomy
Game 2prediction missed48:12
Polaris Esports 48%Yangon Galacticos 52%
The model gave 52% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingNatsumi
TerrorbladeKsh
Ember SpiritMac
KunkkaYoung PH
Dark SeerForce
BloodseekerBoomy
Lioncml
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 53%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2