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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
61%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
90%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 24 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 15 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lodine · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 124 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 442 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 345 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
243 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
241 picks · 333 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
235 picks · 486 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Team Empire
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total51% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:22
Team Empire 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
54% · 94 games48% · 175 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
42% · 85 games52% · 68 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsShachlo
54% · 185 gameslittle data
DawnbreakerTheChosenOne
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
52% · 81 game46% · 116 games
Dark WillowHeaven
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanVANSKOR
57% · 67 games48% · 153 games
HoodwinkLodine
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Team Empire 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterShachlo
46% · 111 games58% · 54 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
51% · 100 games46% · 113 games
BatriderAinkrad
Batrider
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
64% · 69 games46% · 115 games
Monkey KingTheChosenOne
Monkey King
Mirana
Miranasayuw
50% · 139 games46% · 102 games
AbaddonLodine
Abaddon
Silencer
SilencerVANSKOR
44% · 24 games52% · 59 games
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct32:13
Team Empire 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 48:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLorenof
49% · 139 games43% · 85 games
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
53% · 107 games54% · 164 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Axe
AxeShachlo
52% · 100 games42% · 40 games
Night StalkerTheChosenOne
Night Stalker
Elder Titan
Elder Titansayuw
52% · 123 games52% · 146 games
EnchantressHeaven
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkVANSKOR
53% · 121 game48% · 155 games
AbaddonLodine
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 51%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3