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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
35%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 13 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 27 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 18 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 17 games
35%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Fly · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 944 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 633 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 659 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
390 picks · 243 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
AVULUS 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
52% · 354 games50% · 382 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Broodmother
BroodmotherTA2000
56% · 73 games50% · 32 games
Death ProphetSabeRLight-
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsCorrupted
52% · 468 games44% · 483 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
55% · 272 games49% · 391 game
WarlockFly
Warlock
Tiny
TinyWein
51% · 566 games43% · 445 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed38:14
AVULUS 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
41% · 123 games59% · 53 games
ClinkzTimado
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
50% · 427 games57% · 380 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
50% · 158 games52% · 193 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
46% · 274 games52% · 493 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
45% · 172 games43% · 35 games
GrimstrokeHellscream
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed25:12
AVULUS 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTA2000
41% · 114 games58% · 452 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
54% · 415 games48% · 145 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
53% · 224 games56% · 301 game
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageWein
45% · 134 games46% · 53 games
GrimstrokeHellscream
Grimstroke
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 551 game49% · 487 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3