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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
39%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 23 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 16 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 30 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 25 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 944 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 641 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 633 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 659 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
390 picks · 243 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total94% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:19
Inner Circle 18%Aurora Gaming 82%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
51% · 190 games49% · 349 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckniche
51% · 459 games50% · 161 game
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Razor
Razorlaise
56% · 70 games53% · 124 games
Primal BeastWs
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyJing
51% · 433 games44% · 434 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaSe
47% · 73 games48% · 157 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct12:15
Inner Circle 18%Aurora Gaming 82%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
52% · 289 games47% · 494 games
Dragon KnightNightfall
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckniche
52% · 349 games47% · 92 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
53% · 377 games50% · 250 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenSe
48% · 195 games49% · 454 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Marci
MarciJing
49% · 164 games52% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct0:21
Inner Circle 17%Aurora Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 17:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckniche
51% · 224 games46% · 61 game
RazorNightfall
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless Void423
60% · 37 games59% · 84 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Underlord
Underlordlaise
42% · 115 games51% · 326 games
MarsWs
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJing
46% · 88 games53% · 174 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockSe
48% · 249 games51% · 68 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 94%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3