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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 18 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 15 games
80%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
54%

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 8 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 173 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 443 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
249 picks · 344 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
244 picks · 249 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
243 picks · 334 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 487 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
V-Gaming 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
47% · 51 game46% · 53 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendhAze
52% · 23 games50% · 23 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
44% · 42 games53% · 95 games
Void SpiritDendi
Void Spirit
Lina
LinaArrOw
54% · 96 games57% · 62 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
45% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct30:12
V-Gaming 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
48% · 68 games56% · 43 games
LycanLimitless
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderhAze
44% · 79 games59% · 73 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
47% · 43 games45% · 77 games
Storm SpiritDendi
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowArrOw
44% · 64 games57% · 72 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
53% · 11 games
Game 3prediction correct41:19
V-Gaming 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
38% · 14 games62% · 52 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Undying
Undyinglaise
35% · 25 games57% · 38 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderhAze
40% · 47 games57% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritLimitless
Vengeful Spirit
Lion
LionArrOw
46% · 80 games59% · 91 game
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMalady
38% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 78%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3