IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Сербияloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Румынияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Сербия
No games played over 6 months.
Румыния
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 173 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
264 picks · 442 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
249 picks · 344 bans
Winter Wyvern
244 picks · 249 bans
Dragon Knight
243 picks · 334 bans
Terrorblade
234 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Сербия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Сербия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:35
Сербия 50%Румыния 50%
The model gave 50% on Сербия — the game was taken by Сербия in 43:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteСербия · 50%
Series resultРумыния 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1