Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
263 picks · 444 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
249 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
246 picks · 334 bans
Winter Wyvern
244 picks · 250 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total62% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:16
PuckChamp 62%Team Unique 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 48:19.
Game 2prediction missed24:26
PuckChamp 62%Team Unique 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Unique in 46:19.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 62%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2