Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lodine · 14 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
264 picks · 444 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 526 bans
Luna
250 picks · 346 bans
Dragon Knight
247 picks · 334 bans
Winter Wyvern
246 picks · 251 bans
Puck
235 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Nemiga Gaming 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:59.
Game 2prediction missed20:61
Nemiga Gaming 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 37:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2