OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs predictionMYM Yloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M Y
Bane
LionaX · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
LionaX · 2 games
Svenoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 1 game
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
264 picks · 444 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 526 bans
Luna
250 picks · 346 bans
Dragon Knight
247 picks · 334 bans
Winter Wyvern
246 picks · 251 bans
Puck
235 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 35%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
M Y 47%Lilgun 53%
The model gave 53% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 37:59.
Game 2prediction correct9:23
M Y 47%Lilgun 53%
The model gave 53% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 36:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 53%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2