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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 37 games
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 31 game
61%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
40%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 29 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 25 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 21 game
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 638 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 962 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 660 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:36
Zero Tenacity 31%Aurora Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
49% · 130 games61% · 58 games
ClinkzNightfall
Clinkz
Viper
ViperWorick
52% · 96 games51% · 89 games
SniperLorenof
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 325 games54% · 350 games
MarsWs
Mars
Tusk
TuskMoOz
46% · 386 games47% · 475 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
45% · 98 games46% · 63 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct17:32
Zero Tenacity 32%Aurora Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
55% · 84 games50% · 121 game
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
42% · 138 games46% · 52 games
SniperLorenof
Sniper
Viper
ViperWorick
51% · 80 games52% · 144 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
45% · 142 games49% · 83 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMoOz
55% · 50 games55% · 94 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 82%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2