DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Silk
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Genek · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
Inner Circle
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
Warlock
flacko · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
610 picks · 949 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 437 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 640 bans
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 638 bans
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 962 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 660 bans
Mars
396 picks · 543 bans
Warlock
389 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
Silk 42%Inner Circle 58%
The model gave 58% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDaaD-
Phantom Assassin423
UnderlordAdrx
Largolaise
Shadow ShamanGenek
Ember Spiritniche
JakiroMichael
WarlockSe
50% · 94 games
LionJing
Game 2prediction correct25:44
Silk 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezDaaD-
Dragon Knight423
BristlebackAdrx
Underlordlaise
RubickGenek
Kunkkaniche
JakiroMichael
ChenSe
52% · 241 game
Shadow ShamanJing
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 61%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2