OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ragdollwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 15 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
Lina
264 picks · 441 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 525 bans
Dragon Knight
252 picks · 338 bans
Luna
251 picks · 347 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 248 bans
Mars
239 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
Neon Esports 70%Ragdoll 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 43:23.
Game 2prediction missed36:43
Neon Esports 70%Ragdoll 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 38:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 70%
Series resultRagdoll 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2