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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Moon · 12 games
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 12 games
92%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
262 picks · 438 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 522 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
253 picks · 340 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 347 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 246 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
236 picks · 402 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total51% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:34
Team SMG 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
45% · 55 games51% · 100 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Elder Titan
Elder Titankpii
57% · 60 games49% · 37 games
Slark458
Slark
Silencer
SilencerMoon
39% · 11 games56% · 49 games
Night Stalkerxiaoyu154
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAhFu
54% · 81 game45% · 24 games
Skywrath MageNARMAN
Skywrath Mage
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
44% · 100 games49% · 97 games
ClockwerkJaunuel
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed42:26
Team SMG 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
49% · 156 games47% · 142 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoon
45% · 295 games52% · 284 games
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Lycan
Lycankpii
49% · 82 games53% · 129 games
Troll Warlord458
Troll Warlord
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAhFu
46% · 239 games48% · 241 game
PangolierJaunuel
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRoddgeee
53% · 127 games61% · 103 games
LinaNARMAN
Lina
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 51%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2