BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
Dream Maker
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Lich
TrazaM · 1 game
Lion
czy · 1 game
Omniknightoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
Windranger
czy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Lina
262 picks · 435 bans
Nyx Assassin
261 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 341 bans
Luna
253 picks · 345 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 245 bans
Mars
237 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Execration 57%Dream Maker 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UndyingTino-
TidehunterNevermine
LeshracBob
Vengeful Spiritczy
LionRR
MarsTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct37:28
Execration 60%Dream Maker 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTino-
Sand KingNevermine
BatriderBob
Miranaczy
AbaddonRR
SilencerTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2