OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 27 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Deth · 15 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Lina
261 picks · 434 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
Luna
253 picks · 344 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 245 bans
Terrorblade
237 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total70% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:20
Neon Esports 70%Lilgun 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:37.
Game 2prediction missed15:26
Neon Esports 70%Lilgun 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 32:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2