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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
70%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
71%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Watson · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 431 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 343 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
237 picks · 496 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:26
Spider Pigzs 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlil pleb
51% · 57 games45% · 77 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
58% · 72 games46% · 77 games
BeastmasterLimitless
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterFunn1k
49% · 111 games45% · 67 games
ViperDendi
Viper
Mirana
Miranadnz
51% · 99 games55% · 121 game
Lina[T]SA
Lina
Chen
ChenLeBronDota
43% · 3 games
Game 2prediction missed16:41
Spider Pigzs 56%B8 Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlil pleb
42% · 38 games56% · 85 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
43% · 103 games48% · 87 games
BatriderDendi
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightdnz
56% · 80 games47% · 34 games
Night StalkerLimitless
Night Stalker
Sand King
Sand KingFunn1k
45% · 53 games48% · 107 games
Lina[T]SA
Lina
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
67% · 39 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 61%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2