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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 17 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
91%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
boombell · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Hyde · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 8 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Khezcute · 7 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Dreamocel · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 171 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
259 picks · 427 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 341 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 244 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
237 picks · 495 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
Motivate.Trust Gaming 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusFearless
54% · 53 games46% · 17 games
Phantom LancerPalos
Phantom Lancer
Riki
RikiJaCkky
45% · 47 games38% · 12 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingQ
52% · 117 games46% · 114 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Bane
Baneboombell
65% · 36 games40% · 75 games
PangolierPlayHard
Pangolier
58% · 35 games
GyrocopterSkem
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct26:37
Motivate.Trust Gaming 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
53% · 82 games53% · 54 games
Monkey KingPalos
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFearless
51% · 95 games49% · 55 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingQ
44% · 53 games41% · 28 games
Night StalkerFbz
Night Stalker
Bane
Baneboombell
46% · 17 games46% · 25 games
WindrangerPlayHard
Windranger
56% · 85 games
TidehunterSkem
Tidehunter
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 50%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2