OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 27 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 19 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 521 bans
Lina
256 picks · 423 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
246 picks · 339 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Fnatic 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:08.
Game 2prediction correct19:18
Fnatic 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2