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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%

iG Vitality

Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 126 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 517 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
254 picks · 417 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
246 picks · 336 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:40
Execration 51%iG Vitality 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzTino-
46% · 11 games48% · 30 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderBob
49% · 39 games54% · 46 games
Slarkukiyo
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierRR
50% · 26 games
Game 2prediction correct43:23
Execration 50%iG Vitality 50%
The model gave 50% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTino-
62% · 9 games50% · 16 games
Clinkzukiyo
Clinkz
Lina
LinaBob
45% · 30 games51% · 28 games
WindrangerButterflyEffect
Windranger
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRR
56% · 5 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2