OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 27 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Deth · 15 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 517 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
Lina
254 picks · 417 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
246 picks · 336 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 34%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total79% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 79%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect