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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 17 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 10 games
90%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
boombell · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
63%

Polaris Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 169 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
351 picks · 126 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 516 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 346 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
252 picks · 412 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 243 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
Motivate.Trust Gaming 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
38% · 70 games64% · 80 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritFearless
47% · 104 games46% · 79 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQ
46% · 127 games50% · 28 games
Legion CommanderForce
Legion Commander
Omniknight
Omniknightboombell
55% · 18 games57% · 56 games
EarthshakerBoomy
Earthshaker
55% · 76 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct35:17
Motivate.Trust Gaming 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
48% · 105 games57% · 54 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFearless
49% · 105 games55% · 32 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingQ
46% · 68 games49% · 92 games
LeshracBoomy
Leshrac
Bane
Baneboombell
55% · 18 games56% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritForce
Vengeful Spirit
47% · 103 games
Abaddoncml
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 70%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2