OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Elder Titansignature
y` · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 30 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
Leshracsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 169 bans
Hoodwink
351 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
258 picks · 346 bans
Lina
251 picks · 411 bans
Luna
247 picks · 330 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 243 bans
Puck
234 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
LGD Gaming 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 36:36.
Game 2prediction correct44:14
LGD Gaming 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:28.
Game 3prediction correct36:18
LGD Gaming 69%T1 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 69%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3