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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 27 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Skem · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
389 picks · 168 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 348 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 527 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
255 picks · 409 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
251 picks · 242 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 329 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
238 picks · 543 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total73% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
Omega Esports 27%Neon Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:25.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Omega Esports 27%Neon Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 23:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 73%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2