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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 24 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
74%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 949 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 642 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 639 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
445 picks · 964 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 661 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 541 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 240 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:23
Team Falcons 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSkiter
47% · 294 games49% · 89 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
50% · 111 games56% · 59 games
Viperbzm
Viper
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
59% · 86 games47% · 120 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSneyking
51% · 342 games48% · 343 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Largo
LargoCr1t-
54% · 83 games44% · 305 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1