?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 11 games
36%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
391 picks · 174 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 351 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
266 picks · 537 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 244 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
250 picks · 402 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
246 picks · 399 bans
46%
Luna
Luna
245 picks · 330 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Spider Pigzs 45%Team Empire 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalil pleb
47% · 106 games53% · 143 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
47% · 157 games46% · 108 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFunn1k
47% · 102 games61% · 13 games
Vengeful SpiritShachlo
Vengeful Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
63% · 52 games48% · 200 games
Pangoliersayuw
Pangolier
Lion
LionOmaR
50% · 214 games49% · 167 games
ClockwerkVANSKOR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed21:12
Spider Pigzs 47%Team Empire 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlil pleb
53% · 44 gameslittle data
SniperSmiling Knight
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
58% · 70 games47% · 209 games
Void SpiritLorenof
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
49% · 125 games46% · 109 games
BloodseekerShachlo
Bloodseeker
Phoenix
PhoenixOmaR
49% · 192 games49% · 250 games
Lionsayuw
Lion
Pangolier
PangolierLeBronDota
48% · 187 games54% · 50 games
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct9:23
Spider Pigzs 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
49% · 91 game54% · 96 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
55% · 128 games49% · 109 games
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Tidehunter
TidehunterFunn1k
53% · 100 games52% · 99 games
AxeShachlo
Axe
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 82 games46% · 85 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Sven
SvenLeBronDota
47% · 37 games44% · 49 games
OmniknightVANSKOR
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3