i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 3:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 19 games
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Lunasignature
LaNm · 14 games
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Dy · 28 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Ori · 24 games
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
391 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 351 bans
Nyx Assassin
266 picks · 537 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 244 bans
Lina
250 picks · 398 bans
Mars
246 picks · 399 bans
Luna
244 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head6 – 5
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:21
Team Aster 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMonet
Svenpoyoyo
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
PuckOri
PangolierXxs
Dragon KnightELeVeN
PudgeBoBoKa
GrimstrokeDy
ChenLaNm
PhoenixPyw
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Team Aster 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMonet
Anti-Magepoyoyo
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
Void SpiritOri
Vengeful SpiritXxs
BloodseekerELeVeN
PudgeBoBoKa
PangolierPyw
LichLaNm
Shadow DemonDy
Game 3prediction correct39:24
Team Aster 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMonet
Weaverpoyoyo
BatriderWhite丶Album
BloodseekerELeVeN
PudgeBoBoKa
TinkerOri
Vengeful SpiritXxs
PangolierPyw
LichLaNm
Shadow DemonDy
Game 4prediction correct38:21
Team Aster 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMonet
Slarkpoyoyo
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
InvokerOri
NecrophosXxs
Dragon KnightELeVeN
PudgeBoBoKa
GrimstrokePyw
LichLaNm
OmniknightDy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4