Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
Linasignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
392 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 129 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 354 bans
Nyx Assassin
270 picks · 549 bans
Winter Wyvern
257 picks · 245 bans
Mars
256 picks · 407 bans
Lina
249 picks · 397 bans
Puck
248 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total50% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
Team Unique 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:10.
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Team Unique 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 50%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2