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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 13 games
69%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 9 games
67%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 25 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 15 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 14 games
79%
Axe
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 175 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 129 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 355 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
270 picks · 552 bans
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
258 picks · 245 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 408 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
250 picks · 552 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
247 picks · 397 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Team Empire
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:22
Team Empire 44%V-Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSmiling Knight
48% · 44 games50% · 57 games
JuggernautTA2000
Juggernaut
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
56% · 149 games41% · 102 games
LinahAze
Lina
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAfterLife
50% · 72 games45% · 184 games
Marslaise
Mars
Pangolier
Pangoliersayuw
49% · 164 games54% · 61 game
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerKataomi
43% · 9 games58% · 34 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Team Empire 43%V-Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSmiling Knight
52% · 9 games42% · 87 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Batrider
Batriderkiyotaka
44% · 86 games49% · 91 game
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingAfterLife
46% · 77 games50% · 91 game
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Lina
Linasayuw
48% · 153 games59% · 87 games
RubickArrOw
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKataomi
64% · 79 games45% · 48 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 64%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2