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i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 16 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Luna
Lunasignature
LaNm · 14 games
64%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 26 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Ori · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 175 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 129 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 355 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
270 picks · 552 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 408 bans
46%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
257 picks · 245 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
250 picks · 552 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
247 picks · 394 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:38
Team Aster 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 1:04:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMonet
47% · 14 games62% · 14 games
Svenpoyoyo
Sven
Tinker
TinkerWhite丶Album
little data57% · 18 games
Shadow FiendOri
Shadow Fiend
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerXxs
46% · 62 games46% · 54 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenLaNm
47% · 9 games50% · 103 games
LionPyw
Lion
Pangolier
PangolierBoBoKa
54% · 117 games38% · 13 games
OmniknightDy
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct24:17
Team Aster 53%Vici Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMonet
49% · 10 games49% · 129 games
Void SpiritOri
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusWhite丶Album
54% · 78 games55% · 53 games
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
50% · 190 games47% · 69 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
51% · 95 games42% · 43 games
Elder TitanPyw
Elder Titan
Chen
ChenLaNm
57% · 27 games45% · 106 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct22:9
Team Aster 52%Vici Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMonet
51% · 45 games52% · 53 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderWhite丶Album
50% · 98 games49% · 90 games
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
49% · 134 games53% · 33 games
Night StalkerELeVeN
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
52% · 92 games43% · 131 game
GrimstrokePyw
Grimstroke
Chen
ChenLaNm
62% · 22 games51% · 84 games
Winter WyvernDy
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3