Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
395 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 129 bans
Nyx Assassin
274 picks · 557 bans
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 355 bans
Mars
260 picks · 413 bans
Winter Wyvern
257 picks · 244 bans
Puck
251 picks · 558 bans
Lina
248 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:7
PuckChamp 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:37.
Game 2prediction missed22:37
PuckChamp 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 36:10.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 61%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2