Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V-Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Linasignature
hAze · 15 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
395 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 129 bans
Nyx Assassin
275 picks · 559 bans
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 355 bans
Mars
261 picks · 414 bans
Winter Wyvern
258 picks · 244 bans
Puck
253 picks · 560 bans
Lina
248 picks · 389 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
Team Unique 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 31:36.
Game 2prediction correct18:7
Team Unique 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 19:20.
Game 3prediction correct11:22
Team Unique 38%V-Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 28:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 62%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3