?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
qwerty44loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 16 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%

qwerty44

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Fezor · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Bane
Bane
Fezor · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 130 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
277 picks · 572 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 357 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
265 picks · 419 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
260 picks · 243 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
256 picks · 568 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
246 picks · 379 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:5
Nemiga Gaming 64%qwerty44 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
56% · 47 games45% · 98 games
BatriderUSHUSHUSH
Batrider
Slark
SlarkKiritych
49% · 37 games47% · 76 games
GyrocopterKom4rt
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingTheChosenOne
51% · 34 games34% · 24 games
OmniknightFezor
Omniknight
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
65% · 29 games
Abaddon
AbaddonLodine
57% · 51 game
Game 2prediction missed25:39
Nemiga Gaming 62%qwerty44 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 43:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
50% · 6 games45% · 18 games
ClinkzKom4rt
Clinkz
Puck
PuckAinkrad
52% · 97 games60% · 107 games
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
35% · 37 games56% · 127 games
EnchantressFezor
Enchantress
Lina
LinaHeaven
48% · 86 games
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
36% · 26 games
Game 3prediction correct47:12
Nemiga Gaming 63%qwerty44 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
42% · 16 games52% · 85 games
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
46% · 90 games49% · 52 games
WeaverKom4rt
Weaver
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTheChosenOne
60% · 33 games49% · 55 games
Faceless VoidFezor
Faceless Void
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHeaven
47% · 39 games
Omniknight
OmniknightLodine
54% · 14 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3