Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
400 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
280 picks · 573 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 357 bans
Mars
267 picks · 421 bans
Winter Wyvern
259 picks · 243 bans
Puck
257 picks · 571 bans
Lina
247 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Unique
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Team Unique 62%Spider Pigzs 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 36:28.
Game 2prediction missed20:17
Team Unique 62%Spider Pigzs 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 32:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 62%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2