BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
Leshrac
NothingToSay · 13 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 13 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 29 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
607 picks · 945 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 436 bans
Centaur Warrunner
486 picks · 640 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 637 bans
Shadow Demon
443 picks · 962 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 657 bans
Mars
395 picks · 539 bans
Warlock
388 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:26
Xtreme Gaming 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 55:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzAme
Razorgotthejuice
TinyNothingToSay
HuskarNiku
Primal BeastXxs
LargoZayac
JakiroxNova
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Shadow Demonfy
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1