Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
400 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
358 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
282 picks · 576 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 358 bans
Mars
268 picks · 425 bans
Puck
259 picks · 574 bans
Winter Wyvern
259 picks · 243 bans
Terrorblade
247 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
PuckChamp 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 38:32.
Game 2prediction correct16:22
PuckChamp 43%Team Unique 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 37:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 57%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2