Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
Void Spirit
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
400 picks · 178 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
282 picks · 583 bans
Dragon Knight
273 picks · 358 bans
Mars
271 picks · 431 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 244 bans
Puck
259 picks · 582 bans
Lina
246 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Spider Pigzs 53%HellRaisers 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 36:13.
Game 2prediction missed10:28
Spider Pigzs 53%HellRaisers 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:08.
Game 3prediction missed23:43
Spider Pigzs 53%HellRaisers 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 49:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 53%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3