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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 11 games
45%

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 20 games
70%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 16 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Askold · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 11 games
45%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 10 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
401 picks · 179 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
360 picks · 130 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
282 picks · 583 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 358 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 433 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
261 picks · 579 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 243 bans
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
246 picks · 524 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:23
Nemiga Gaming 56%Fantastic Five 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
52% · 51 game48% · 34 games
SvenKami
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
41% · 50 games51% · 106 games
Earth SpiritAskold
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
61% · 117 games37% · 176 games
MarsBlizzy
Mars
Lina
LinaHeaven
50% · 147 games56% · 97 games
RubickjAMES
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLodine
59% · 69 games38% · 21 game
Omniknight633
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed21:50
Nemiga Gaming 56%Fantastic Five 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKiritych
little data55% · 60 games
WeaverKami
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
51% · 92 games49% · 99 games
Storm SpiritAskold
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
47% · 107 games56% · 24 games
Night StalkerBlizzy
Night Stalker
Phoenix
PhoenixHeaven
49% · 155 games45% · 170 games
MiranajAMES
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
42% · 45 games63% · 46 games
Treant Protector633
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct50:26
Nemiga Gaming 56%Fantastic Five 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:04:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
62% · 32 games53% · 13 games
ClinkzKami
Clinkz
Sven
SvenKiritych
53% · 47 games52% · 104 games
TinyAskold
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
47% · 106 games48% · 60 games
Sand KingBlizzy
Sand King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHeaven
38% · 20 games50% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightjAMES
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
54% · 175 games43% · 125 games
Clockwerk633
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3