ESL One Fall 2021 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 3:2
LGD Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 16 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 11 games
LGD Gaming
Elder Titansignature
y` · 32 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 27 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
407 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 132 bans
Nyx Assassin
290 picks · 594 bans
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 359 bans
Mars
271 picks · 450 bans
Puck
264 picks · 593 bans
Winter Wyvern
263 picks · 246 bans
Lina
253 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:10
Tundra Esports 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
Templar AssassinAme
Monkey KingNine
LinaXinQ
Dark Seer33
TinyFaith_bian
Shadow DemonSneyking
Spirit BreakerXiao8
PangolierFata
Phoenixy`
Game 2prediction correct39:47
Tundra Esports 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSkiter
BloodseekerAme
Dark Seer33
LeshracXiao8
MagnusNine
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
PangolierSneyking
Monkey KingXinQ
GyrocopterFata
Baney`
Game 3prediction correct8:23
Tundra Esports 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
SvenAme
Beastmaster33
LeshracXiao8
Void SpiritNine
LycanFaith_bian
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
Keeper of the LightXinQ
PangolierFata
Baney`
Game 4prediction missed48:28
Tundra Esports 43%LGD Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNine
PangolierXiao8
BloodseekerSkiter
LifestealerAme
Tidehunter33
Keeper of the LightXinQ
MiranaSneyking
Night StalkerFaith_bian
GyrocopterFata
Elder Titany`
Game 5prediction missed38:26
Tundra Esports 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNine
SlarkAme
JuggernautSkiter
ViperFaith_bian
Night Stalker33
Storm SpiritXinQ
Shadow DemonSneyking
PangolierXiao8
Monkey KingFata
Keeper of the Lighty`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5