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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 22 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 11 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 32 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 25 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 184 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
360 picks · 132 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
293 picks · 594 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 360 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 454 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
264 picks · 595 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 246 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
252 picks · 378 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:27
Virtus.pro 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
54% · 44 games43% · 59 games
SvenAme
Sven
Lina
LinagpK~
49% · 100 games55% · 153 games
PangolierXiao8
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
53% · 76 games45% · 128 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Lion
LionSave-
50% · 142 games45% · 61 game
IoXinQ
Io
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
56% · 79 games48% · 40 games
Night Stalkery`
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Virtus.pro 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
53% · 62 games48% · 57 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Batrider
BatridergpK~
58% · 93 games49% · 8 games
ClinkzXiao8
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
57% · 81 game45% · 44 games
EarthshakerFaith_bian
Earthshaker
Lina
LinaSave-
49% · 69 games38% · 129 games
Earth SpiritXinQ
Earth Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
61% · 60 games45% · 127 games
Oracley`
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct26:33
Virtus.pro 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
52% · 58 games49% · 8 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Viper
VipergpK~
40% · 45 games56% · 92 games
Keeper of the LightXinQ
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsDM
49% · 181 game55% · 174 games
PangolierXiao8
Pangolier
Lina
LinaSave-
41% · 90 games42% · 9 games
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
Vengeful Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
51% · 60 games51% · 151 game
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3