ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Elder Titansignature
y` · 32 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
408 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
359 picks · 131 bans
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 599 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 361 bans
Mars
277 picks · 459 bans
Puck
267 picks · 602 bans
Winter Wyvern
260 picks · 246 bans
Lina
252 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
LGD Gaming 66%T1 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:20.
Game 2prediction missed15:36
LGD Gaming 66%T1 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by T1 in 37:38.
Game 3prediction correct28:22
LGD Gaming 66%T1 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 66%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3