ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
409 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 131 bans
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 600 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 361 bans
Mars
278 picks · 458 bans
Puck
268 picks · 601 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 246 bans
Lina
255 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:9
beastcoast 32%T1 68%
The model gave 68% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 31:43.
Game 2prediction correct53:27
beastcoast 32%T1 68%
The model gave 68% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 44:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 68%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2